"There are issues on the horizon (energy, climate change, migrant flows, technological shifts, sluggish productivity) that will make realists of us all. Whereas neoconservatism and liberal internationalism have been aspirational, realism might have a chance of preserving a (big “L”) Liberal international order simply by injecting it with some good old fashioned rationality."
History tells us that no nuclear power with missiles it can fire has ever totally denuclearized of its own free will. So expect Kim Jong-un to ask the world in Singapore. If he doesn’t get it, he’ll play for time. Trump has another two to four years. Kim Jong-un has the rest of his life.
Black boxes have inputs and outputs, but the connections among them and the rules that govern how causes become effects are purposely opaque so that consent can be manufactured and propaganda can be accepted without evidence. A few thoughts on how black a box Syria is:
The deeper one dives into 21st century advanced, multi-lateral conflict, the more a "chess vs. checkers player" narrative emerges from the optics of the Putin/Trump relationship.